World's Forests: The Future May Not Be As Bad

Many of the world's forests appear to be making a comeback, and some are more thickly forested now than they were nearly 200 years ago, says a report published in the US journal Proceedings of the .National Academy of Sciences recently.

A new technique for measuring the state of the world's forests shows the future may not be as bad as previously feared. An international team of researchers says its Forest Identity methodology suggests the world could be approaching a "turning point" from deforestation.

Sources: http://news.bbc.co.uk & www.planetark.com. 13 & 14 November 2006 One of the paper's co-authors, Professor Pekka Kauppi said data from the methodology offered a more sophisticated view than previous studies. "We see prospects for an end to deforestation; we do not make a forecast, but it is possible," he said. Rather than defining forests simply as the areas covered with trees, the researchers also included other components such as timber volumes, biomass and captured carbon. He said this approach offered a better understanding of the natural resource. "When we look at changes in both area covered and biomass, we can get a more complete picture of the ecosystems. "

When the technique was applied to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) Global Forest Assessment report, the researchers found that despite widespread concerns about deforestation, forest stocks had actually expanded over the past 15 years in 22 of the world's 50 most forested countries. They also showed increases in biomass and carbon storage capacity in about half of the 50 countries. The United States and China had the greatest gain in forests over the last 15 years, while Brazil and Indonesia lost the most.

The report also showed a correlation between a nation's economic growth and "forest transition", in other words, a shift from deforestation to net gain in tree covers. The researchers found that when the gross domestic product per capita reached US$4,600 (RM16,421), many nations experienced forest transition and saw an increase in forestry growing stock (volume of usable timber).

Professor Kauppi said no nation intentionally destroyed forests, people did it out of necessity. "Rural populations, which are poor and growing, have to convert new land to agriculture and subsistence farming," he observed. "So, the pressures on the forests ease if people have other job sources. We are not saying that people, because they are wealthier, do not destroy forests, but it is a sign that societies have good law enforcement and rural policies."

But there was a risk that a misleading picture was being created by rich nations importing raw timber or wood-based products from poorer nations, rather than destroying their own woodlands. "This is a serious problem. It is called 'leakage' or 'exporting ecological impacts' and it exists, unfortunately," said Professor Kauppi. However, he emphasised that, overall, international trade was not bad. If agricultural production takes place in highly productive regions, then land elsewhere can be protected or saved, he said.

He hoped the Forest Identity methodology would be used as a tool to help governments and policymakers to formulate effective and achievable strategies for the long-term future of the planet's forests.